With Philip Rivers and the Los Angeles Chargers looking to take another step toward reaching Super Bowl 53 and Tom Brady and the New England Patriots looking to take care of business at home, NFL Over/Under total betting enthusiasts everywhere are going to have a great chance to cash in with a potentially winning total wager.
With the Pats and Bolts combine to put a bunch of points on the board or will one or both of these Super Bowl hopefuls put on a defensive performance for the ages that keeps the scoring at a premium in this affair?
Let’s find out what’s going to go down in this intriguing pairing right now.
AFC Divisional Playoffs – Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots
What: AFC Divisional Playoffs – Los Angeles Chargers (12-4) at New England Patriots (11-5)
When: Sunday, January 13, 2019, 1:05 PM ET
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Mostly Cloudy: -4°C | 25°F
Wind: 5 MPH NE
Stadium Type: Open Air
Why bet on the Los Angeles Chargers?
The Los Angeles Chargers closed out their regular season by losing just once over their last six games, but the Bolts even got some revenge for that loss by beating Baltimore 23-17 in their AFC wild-card matchup last weekend in a game that finished Under the 43-point total. Philip Rivers passed for a modest 160 yards in the win, but it was the Chargers defense that really got the job done by limiting the Ravens to three points through three quarters.
The Chargers have played under the total in three straight games and four of five as they get set to face Tom Brady and the Pats.
L.A. averages an impressive 26.8 points per game to rank sixth in scoring while limiting the opposition to just 20.6 points per contest defensively to rank an equally impressive eighth in points allowed. Rivers said he’s excited to face two of the best ever to get where he wants to go..
“Again, I’ve got to focus on that defense,” Rivers said. “Now I’m not playing Tom by any means, but is it special to go to New England to go against a Hall of Fame coach and arguably the best quarterback ever to play? (Am I excited to) get another shot at them? Heck yeah. Heck yeah, it is special. Just like I always told you, we look over and it’s Peyton Manning on the other side. I’m not playing those guys, but I have a great deal of respect. (I’m a) fan of those guys. So to get an opportunity again to go against them 11 years after we had that opportunity in the 2007 season, yeah, it’s awesome. I’m looking forward to it.”
• Under is 4-0 in Chargers last 4 playoff games.
• Under is 5-0 in Chargers last 5 games on FieldTurf.
• Under is 6-1 in Chargers last 7 games following an ATS win.
• Under is 4-1 in Chargers last 5 games overall.
• Under is 4-1 in Chargers last 5 playoff road games.
• Under is 21-8 in Chargers last 29 vs. AFC.
• Under is 36-15-1 in Chargers last 52 games following a straight up win.
Why bet on the New England Patriots?
After suffering a pair of surprising December losses to non-playoff teams in Miami and Pittsburgh in Weeks 14 and 15, New England managed to win their final two regular season contests including their emphatic 38-3 Week 17 win over the New York Jets in Week 17 as Tom Brady passed for 250 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions while the game finished Under the 46.5-point total. Now, the Patriots are going to face a Chargers team that says they are prepared for what Tom Brady brings to the table.
“It’s night and day, no doubt about it,” Chargers coach Anthony Lynn said. “But we’ve faced more Brady types than Lamar types, so we’ve had reps at this all year. Our defense is about being in the positions we’re supposed to be in, doing the details of our assignments and playing fast.”
The Patriots rank a stellar fourth in scoring (27.2 ppg) and equally encouraging seventh in points allowed (20.3 ppg), but this is a team that lost to lowly Jacksonville, Detroit, and Miami as well as mediocre Tennessee and underachieving Pittsburgh. The good news for the Pats as they get set for their divisional matchup is that they’ve gone 8-0 SU at home this season. The bad news is that they’ll be facing a Chargers team that is 8- in nine road dates this season.
• Under is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 home games.
• Under is 5-0 in Patriots last 5 games on FieldTurf.
• Under is 8-1 in Patriots last 9 games overall.
• Over is 8-1 in Patriots last 9 playoff home games.
• Under is 6-1 in Patriots last 7 vs. AFC.
• Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games following a straight up win.
• Over is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games in January.
• Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games following an ATS win.
Expert Pick and Prediction
While both of these teams have rock-solid defenses that can shut down their opponents when they play their best football, both of these teams also have elite quarterbacks and I believe that is going to be the deciding factor that causes this game to narrowly play over the 46-point total.
The Over is 4-1 in the Chargers last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and a nearly unblemished 8-0-1 in New England’s last 9 Divisional Playoffs games. The Over is also 5-1 in the Patriots last 6 playoff games and I’m expecting another Over outcome in this one while L.A. gets the outright upset win to end New England’s up-and-down campaign.
Predicted Score Los Angeles Chargers 27 | New England Patriots 21