If you’re an NFL betting enthusiast that is looking for value amongst the favorites when Week 4 gets underway this weekend, then consider your ticket punched! I’ve got a trio of expert week 4 picks featuring three favorites that all look like virtual locks to cover the chalk in their respective matchups.
With the explosive Kansas City Chiefs highlighting my Week 4 picks, let’s find out who my other two picks are right now.
Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans
🏈: Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) at Tennessee Titans (2-1)
⏰: Sun. Sep 30, 2018 1:00 PM ET
🏟️: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
📺: FOX, DTV: 712
🎰: Philadelphia Eagles -4 -110 | -210 | O 41 -110
Philadelphia didn’t look like world beaters, but they managed to get past Indianapolis 20-16 in Week 3. Most importantly, the Birds got back star quarterback Carson Wentz after he tore his ACL late last season. Wentz threw a touchdown pass on his first drive in nine months to lead Philadelphia to victory.
“It was a long time coming,” Wentz said after playing his first game since he tore two ligaments in his left knee last Dec. 10. “It felt great.”
Marcus Mariota came off the bench against Jacksonville this past weekend to lead the Titans on three scoring drives that all ended in field goals to lead Tennessee to victory. First-year Titans coach Mike Vrabel gave Mariota a game ball in the locker room.
Expert Pick and Prediction
While Tennessee has won two straight and will be at home in this matchup, I like the Philadelphia Eagles to scratch out another hard-fought win because the Birds are simply better on both sides of the ball.
Philadelphia has gone 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games against a team with a winning record, 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following an SU win and 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games overall. Conversely, the Titans are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game, 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 home games against a team with a winning road record and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 4. I like the Birds get it done in another ugly affair!
Predicted Score: Eagles 24 Titans 20
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants
🏈: New Orleans Saints (2-1) at New York Giants (1-2)
⏰: Sun. Sep 30, 2018 4:25 PM ET
🏟️: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
📺: CBS, DTV: 716
🎰: New Orleans Saints -3½ -105 | -180 | O 50½ -110
The Saints picked up a thrilling 43-37 overtime win in Atlanta last weekend as Drew Brees capped off the winning drive with a one-yard TD dive. The 39-year-old Brees broke the record of 6,300 career completions set by Hall of Famer Brett Favre in the win.
“This was a wild one,” said Brees, who passed for 396 yards and three touchdowns and ran for two scores.
The Giants got their first win of the season last weekend but upsetting Houston 27-22 as Eli Manning and Saquon Barkley starred for the G-Men. Manning threw for 297 yards and two touchdowns while Barkley added 82 rushing yards and another touchdown.
“I always knew they had great resolve, but (Sunday) we just made enough plays to win,” coach Pat Shurmur said. “We went from being `almost’ in a lot of areas to finishing it.”
Expert Pick and Prediction
While I was super impressed with New York’s win over Houston last weekend, I just don’t see the Giants being able to either stop Drew Brees or keep pace with the explosive Saints in this contest.
New York is 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an SU win while New Orleans has gone an encouraging 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road games and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win. This pick is as easy as pie. The Saints win and cover with room to spare!
Predicted Score: Saints 31 Giants 21
Monday Night Football: Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
🏈: Monday Night Football: Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) at Denver Broncos (2-1)
⏰: Mon. Oct 1, 2018 8:15 PM ET
🏟️: Broncos Stadium at Mile High, Denver, CO
📺: ESPN, DTV: 206
🎰: Kansas City Chiefs -4½ -110 | -210 | O 54½ -110
The Chiefs are ranked first in scoring by averaging a mind-boggling 39.3 points per game heading into Week 4. Kansas City put 35 points on the board in the first half to cruise to an easy 38-27 win over San Francisco on Sunday as Patrick Mahomes passed for 314 yards with three TD passes and no interceptions.
Denver has managed to win two of three so far, but they looked awful in their 27-14 road loss at Baltimore on Sunday. Well, I guess I should say that it was mostly veteran quarterback Case Keenum that was awful as he was limited to just 192 passing yards with no touchdowns and one interception while looking like the mediocre journeyman he was prior to his career year with Minnesota last season.
Expert Pick and Prediction
I really don’t care that the Broncos are playing at home in this Week 4 divisional showdown, because Case Keenum is playing like garbage.
The Chiefs are light years better than Denver on the offensive side of the ball and second-year quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been an absolute revelation with an NFL-record 13 TD passes in three games – and more importantly, no interceptions. After tossing just seven interceptions a year ago for Minnesota, Keenum has tossed five interceptions already against just three TD passes while compiling an unsightly 37.5 quarterback rating.
Denver has gone 0-4-1 ATS in its last five games while the Chiefs have gone a scorching 7-1 ATS in their last eight games. Don’t think twice about it, the Chiefs win and cover the chalk!
Predicted Score: Chiefs 35 Broncos 24