Heat vs Nuggets Game 3 Betting Odds and preview for the third game of the 2023 NBA Finals.
The next game of the 2023 NBA Finals will take place in South Beach on Wednesday night at 8:30 p.m. Eastern Time (ET), with ABC broadcasting the game. The Heat battled back to defeat the Nuggets by a score of 111-108 in Game 2. The victory by Miami was Denver’s first home playoff loss in 10 attempts during this playoffs. Meanwhile, the Heat scored their fourth win in the 2023 NBA Playoffs when down by eight points or more entering the fourth quarter.
The Heat finished Game 2 by sinking 48.6 percent of their triples (17-of-35) and making 18-of-20 free throws, which was a significant improvement over their performance in Game 1, when they only attempted two free throws and shot 33.3 percent from beyond the arc (13-of-39). However, it was the production from Miami’s other unsung heroes — Gabe Vincent (23 points), Bam Adebayo (21), Max Strus (14), and Duncan Robinson (10) — that helped stun the crowd inside of the Ball Arena. Jimmy Butler (21 points, seven-of-19 shooting) was more efficient as a scorer after his 13-point showing in Game 1, but he still only contributed 13 points.
Although the Nuggets finished Game 2 with a superior shooting percentage (52 percent), which is required to win an NBA Finals game, Denver’s defensive energy was not at the level required. The Nuggets have allowed the Heat offense to have an excessive number of open looks at the basket, which has led to the Nuggets posting their third-worst defensive rating in the playoffs (129.1). The Heat offense will be happy to take advantage of the Nuggets’ defensive errors.
Michael Malone, the head coach of the Nuggets, stated after the game that “Miami came in here and outworked us.” During the unprecedented run that the Heat have had in the Finals, the Heat’s opponents have used this strategy rather frequently. Malone is entitled to criticize his team for being outworked, but credit should also go to Miami for their ability to thrive in the face of adversity and grind their opponents down over the course of a full game.
Will the Heat take a 2-1 lead in the series, or will the Nuggets be able to retake the series advantage with defensive adjustments and resiliency? In the following, we will analyze Game 3 of the 2023 NBA Finals between the Heat and the Nuggets, including a breakdown of the odds as well as our betting recommendations.
Heat vs Nuggets Game 3 Betting Odds
These are the Heat vs Nuggets Game 3 Betting Odds, brought to you by YouWager.lv:
- Denver Nuggets -2.5, Moneyline -135
- Miami Heat +2.5, Moneyline +115
- Total: 214.5 Over/Under
After Denver’s easy 11-point win in Game 1, the series odds for the Nuggets went from -400 to -700, but by Game 3, they were back down to -275. At its highest point, Denver’s -700 price indicated that it had an 87.5 percent chance of winning its first-ever NBA Championship, but now its series odds suggest that it only has a 73.33 percent chance of winning it all.
In Game 3, the Nuggets are short -2.5-point road spread favorites, but this best-of-seven series now has a real chance of getting close to seven games. By starting Kevin Love instead of Caleb Martin and having Butler guard Jamal Murray, Miami slowed down Denver’s attack just enough to win Game 2. Nikola Jokic still got his (41 points on 16 of 28 shots), but Murray only scored 18 points after getting 26 in Game 1.
During the regular season, Denver had the second-lowest rate of three-point shots made by opponents in the league, but that was only during the regular season. Strus and Robinson hit a total of six out of thirteen from long range, while Vincent’s four out of six shots from long range were still water.
Will Denver’s perimeter defense be more linked, making it harder for Miami to make three-point shots? In Game 1, Denver got lucky because Miami missed several good shots, but in Game 2, those shots went in.
Adding to the mystery that is the 2022–23 Miami Heat, the team has shot 40.3 percent from beyond the line in 12 playoff games on the road but only 37.3 percent in eight games at the Kaseya Center. If you think the Heat will keep lighting it up from deep, you should bet on the Heat as underdog on the moneyline (+115). On the other hand, if you think the Nuggets will come out with more energy and improve their perimeter defense, then Denver (-2.5) has a good chance of taking a 2-1 series lead.
It’s hard to find betting edges on sides and totals in the NBA Finals. We wish we could be more sure about taking one side over the other, but we can’t.
For the sake of making a prediction, we’ll say that Michael Malone’s team will fix their defense problems and take a 2-1 lead in a low-scoring game, giving them a 2-1 lead in the series. In this series, both teams have shot well, but the pace is too slow to bet on the OVER.
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