The Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints and Chicago Bears will all be looking to extend their winning ways in their respective Week 11 matchups, but I’m thinking all three favorites should be on guard to avoid upsets this coming weekend. If you’re looking to find some underdog betting value on the Week 11 NFL schedule, then let’s find out why Tennessee, Philadelphia and Minnesota are all looking good as underdog picks in their respective Week 11 pairings.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
Game Information
What: Tennessee Titans (5-4) at Indianapolis Colts (4-5)
When: Sunday, November 18, 2018, 1:00 PM ET
W️here: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
TV: CBS, DTV: 706
Live Streaming: NFL.com Game Pass
Radio: TuneIn
Tennessee has been seriously impressive the last two weeks in beating Dallas 28-14 in Texas two weeks ago and then backing that up with a statement-making 34-10 smackdown win over Tom Brady and the New England Patriots on Sunday. Indianapolis however, has also been playing their best football of the season in winning three straight coming into this contest including their hard-fought 29-26 home win over Jacksonville on Sunday.
So, with both of these teams looking to improve on their playoff hopes, who’s the pick when this AFC South battle goes down on Sunday? For me, it’s the Tennessee Titans for two simple reasons. First, the Titans beat a Cowboys team that is ranked second in the league in points allowed and then they pounded a Patriots team that is one of the top favorites to win the AFC this season.
Conversely, while Indianapolis is clearly better than they were last season, mostly because quarterback Andrew Luck is back to playing at a high level and looking like a Top 5 signal-caller, the fact of the matter is that the Colts didn’t exactly beat any powerhouses in beating the awful Bills, one-win Raiders and the reeling Jaguars the last three weeks.
The Titans lead the league in fewest points allowed (16.8 ppg) and although the numbers say they are mediocre offensively, Tennessee has put at least 28 points on the board in each of their last two games. Tennessee won both of last season’s pair of meetings and I believe they’ll do so again this year, starting with this Week 11 matchup to improve on their 5-2 ATS mark in their last seven games. The Titans are a great underdog pick this weekend.
Predicted Score: Tennessee Titans 30 | Indianapolis Colts 24
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints
Game Information
What: Philadelphia Eagles (4-5) at New Orleans Saints (8-1)
When: Sunday, November 18, 2018, 4:25 PM ET
W️here: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, LA
TV: FOX, DTV: 712
Live Streaming: NFL.com Game Pass
Radio: TuneIn
The defending champion Philadelphia Eagles, have been consistently inconsistent this season. The Birds fell to an uninspiring 4-5 on the season by losing to Dallas 27-20 at home in their nationally-televised battle against their longtime NFC East division rivals on Sunday night. Carson Wentz passed for 360 yards and two touchdowns but also tossed one costly interception and Philadelphia’s defense could not contain Dallas running back Ezekiel Elliott in the loss.
New Orleans opened up a can of ‘whup-ass’ on the Cincinnati Bengals in their stunning 51-14 blowout on Sunday as future Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees passed for 265 yards and three touchdowns while running backs Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara combined for 265 total yards of offense and three touchdowns.
For this Week 11 matchup, it’s easy to see why a whopping 86 percent of public bettors are backing New Orleans to get it done in this one, but I’m thinking Philly is a great underdog pick seeing as how they have not lost a single game by more than a touchdown while losing three games by four points or less.
I know the Saints have scored 40 or more four times in their last seven games and have put 45 or more on the board against the Rams and Bengals in their last two games, but Philadelphia has a good defense that ranks sixth in points allowed (20.3 ppg) and I sense a bunch of desperation that could help the Birds cover the chalk.
The Eagles are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after racking up more than 350 total yards in their previous game and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss. The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against a team with a losing record and I think they have a great shot cover the chalk in this one.
Predicted Score: Philadelphia Eagles 23 | New Orleans Saints 28
Sunday Night Football: Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Game Information
What: Minnesota Vikings (5-3-1) at Chicago Bears (6-3)
When: Sunday, November 18, 2018, 8:20 PM ET
W️here: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
TV: NBC
Live Streaming: NFL.com Game Pass
Radio: TuneIn
The Vikings will come int their Week 11 matchup well-rested after getting a bye this past weekend following their 24-9 dismantling of Detroit in Week 9. The Vikings recorded a franchise-record 10 sacks of Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford to lead the way to victory on a day when quarterback Kirk Cousins was held to a modest 164 passing yards with one touchdown and one interception.
Chicago has won three straight and looked fantastic in their 34-22 smackdown of Detroit on Sunday as blossoming second-year quarterback Mitch Trubisky passed for 355 yards with three touchdowns and no picks. Chicago’s defense picked off Matt Stafford twice in the win and recorded six sacks on the veteran signal-caller.
While the Bears have been impressive in winning three straight, two of Chicago’s wins came against the awful New York Jets and Buffalo Bills. I’m not quite convinced that Chicago is going to be able to take down a veteran Minnesota team that has been playing well in winning four of their last five games while limiting the opposition to 17 points or less in each victory.
Despite the fact that Chicago is statistically better on both sides of the ball, I’m going to advise you to back underdog Minnesota to get the outright upset win to cover the chalk as a slightly less than field goal road dog while narrowing the gap in their race for first place in the NFC North. The Vikings have won three straight and six of seven in this long rivalry while also going 8-3-1 SU in their last 12 road games. I know Chicago is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Minnesota, but the Vikings are desperate and playing their best football of the season coming into this huge matchup. I think Minnesota is a great underdog pick in this contest and I like them to cover by getting the outright win.
Predicted Score: Minnesota Vikings 24 | Chicago Bears 20
