If you play online, you should have tracking software. It’s quite beneficial, and there’s really no excuse not to. As of this writing, the two most popular tracking software alternatives were PokerTracker and Hold’em Manager.
These programs collect all of your hand histories automatically. After digesting all of the hands you’ve played and storing them in a database, the software slices and dices the data in a variety of beneficial ways. It displays how much money you and any of your opponents have won or lost in hands you’ve tracked. It informs you what percentage of the time you see the flop, how often you raise, how frequently you play from two seats off the button, and so on.
Some time ago, tracking software packages included a heads-up display (HUD). This allows you to superimpose your preferred statistics for each participant in your game onto the table while you play. So, for example, if you wanted to know what percentage of the time each of your opponents saw the flop, you could set the HUD to display that data, which would appear next to each player’s name in the table window.
Using these information in conjunction with a HUD enables experienced players to play multiple tables at once. Instead of closely monitoring each hand to get insight into their opponents, a HUD user can display a few telling statistics and gain rapid insight into each player’s style.
In this section, we’ll go over a few key data and how to utilize them to profile your opponents and obtain insight into their decision-making processes. Even if you don’t want to use a HUD, learning to profile opponents using stats is a valuable skill.
The Three Basic Stats
If you read any online poker strategy discussion group, you’ll notice that people use three basic stats to provide a brief overview of their opponents’ play. All major tracking tools will generate these statistics for each player in your database. The statistics are:
- Voluntarily Put Money In The Pot Percentage
- Preflop Raise Percentage
- Aggression Factor
The first two stats measure only preflop play, while the third measures a player’s aggression over all streets.
Voluntarily Put Money In The Pot Percentage (VP$IP)
Voluntarily Put Money In The Pot proportion (VP$IP) is the proportion of hands a player plays before the flop, eliminating hands where the player checks from the large blind but including hands where the player limps in or raises and then folds to a raise or reraise. This statistic indicates how tight or loose a player plays.
In a 6-max game, this stat often fluctuates between 10% and 80%. A player with a 10% VP$IP plays extremely tight, usually just playing pocket pairs and sometimes AK and AQ. A player with an 80% VP$IP is highly loose, playing almost every hand.
Most online 6-max players fall in between 15 and 30. Players with a VP$IP more than 40 are more likely to be loose and lousy players, therefore use this statistic to help you choose a table. For example, if you had to choose between two tables, one with everyone’s VP$IP under 25 and one with two players over 50, you’d want to go with the table with the two loose players.
Preflop Raise Percentage (PFR)
Preflop Raise Percentage (PFR) refers to the percentage of hands a player raises before the flop. PFR is never greater than VP$IP because when a player raises preflop, they are voluntarily putting money into the pot as well.
Most good players’ PFR is within a few percentage points of their VP$IP. For example, a good player might have a VP$IP of 24 and a PFR of 20. This means that the player raises the majority of the time he plays a hand, with the exception of limping in, cold-calling a raise, or calling from the blinds.
Aggression Factor (AF)
The Aggression Factor (AF) indicates how frequently a player takes an aggressive action (bet or raise) vs a passive one (call). Checks and folds are not considered when calculating AF.
This statistic, unlike the previous two, is based on actions taken during all four betting rounds. (Some formulae eliminate preflop play and just include the three postflop rounds.) It is calculated using a ratio: the number of aggressive plays divided by the number of passive ones. Because it is a ratio, the values can range from zero (if the player has never bet or raised) to infinite (if he has never called).
In actuality, a player with an AF of 0 to 1 is fairly passive, calling more often than betting or raising. A player with an AF of 4/5 or higher is highly aggressive, betting and raising significantly more frequently than calling.
AF can be a tough number to understand accurately. First and foremost, a high AF is more important for a player with a high VP$IP than for a player with a low one. If you play 50% of your cards and yet bet and raise four times more than you call, you must be betting and raising with a variety of really weak hands. However, if you only play 15% of your hands, betting and raising four times more frequently than calling does not indicate a nearly as reckless strategy.
Furthermore, AF assesses performance throughout all betting rounds, so two players with an AF of 3 may play completely different styles—one focused on flop aggression, the other on river aggression.
In recent years, this number, which was once a staple of player profiling, has lost some of its value as newer versions of tracking software packages have made stats based on street-by-street play easier to read. However, this stat is still frequently employed as one of the three basic stats to describe an opponent’s style.
Using Stats To Profile Opponents
Poker players can use a variety of methods. They might be tight and aggressive preflop, aggressive on the flop, and cautious on the turn and river. Alternatively, they can play tight and passive preflop, passively on the turn, hyper-aggressively on the turn, then back off on the river, and so on.
Strategies are made up of various variables, which players can theoretically mix and match to construct their own unique strategies.
In practice, no-limit players typically follow one of a few strategic paradigms. Despite the numerous possibilities, the vast majority of players seem to fit into one of only a few types.
We’re not going to hypothesize about why this happens. But we’re going to assume that it does and show you how to draw very reliable inferences about an opponent’s overall approach to the game based on only a few statistics.
We created these profiling approaches by expertise and observation. Again, there is no underlying reason why this type of profiling must succeed. It simply works, at least in today’s online $1-$2 6-max games.
We mentioned earlier that AF is losing prominence, and for good reason. To define our profiles, we just use VP$IP and PFR.
Let’s look at some stats-driven profiles. Please keep in mind that these figures apply only to 6-max play. Expect all archetypes to play a few points tighter in full ring play due to the additional seats in early position. Also, make sure your HUD only uses 6-max data when calculating stats for your opponents. If you play both 6-max and full ring games, your stats may be influenced by statistics from full ring play.
The Setminer: 9/7
The setminer’s metrics are quite strict and aggressive. A typical stat configuration may be 9 for VP$IP and 7 for PFR, abbreviated 9/7. Obviously, an individual player may deviate from this benchmark by a point or two in either of the statistics. A setminer has an extremely rigorous strategy: wait for pocket pairs preflop and, if feeling adventurous, take a chance on AK. After the flop, try to get all of your money in with a set or an overpair, and fold otherwise.
Setminers will typically open the pot for a raise, but will occasionally flat call a raise with a little pocket pair. Expect their PFR to be two to three points lower than their VP$IP. They don’t call much after the flop because they fold their marginal hands.
The strategy for defeating a setminer is straightforward. Don’t play big pots with them unless you have the nuts or can beat their expected set. Steal their blinds with reckless abandon. When they see a flip, they are more likely to have a tiny or medium pair and miss their set. So place a continuation bet on almost every flop. Usually, they will be in the mood to fold. When they don’t give up, succumb to any opposition.
Setminers do not earn a lot of money, but their method might be beneficial, especially in microstakes games. They frequently compensate for their relatively small edges by playing a large number of tables concurrently. Don’t anticipate them to surprise you too much given their proclivity to play up to 24 tables. They have little time to think about any of their plays. Just continue snatching their blinds.
The Nit: 13/9
When setminers reach adulthood, they become nits. Nits use a similar strategy to the setminer, except they play a few extra hands preflop, like as KJ and JTs on the button in unraised pots. Because they play more big card hands than setminers, they will hit the flop more frequently (though not as hard on average), and they will be more ready to go all-in on the flop if they do not have a set.
Your general strategy against the Nit should be roughly the same as your plan against the Setminer. Don’t repay them in large sums, and steal, steal, steal.
Nits do not make large pots unless they have giant hands. If a Nit bets the flop and turn before shoving all-in on the river, you virtually never have to make a difficult decision. Either you have the nuts, or you fold because he does.
One of the authors of this guide once played the following hand against a nit (stats: 12/9).
It was a $1-$2 six-max game. The nit had $200, but the author had him covered. The nit opened in the cutoff for $7, and the author called the button with A♠ K♥. The large blind also called.
The flop was A♥ 5♣ 3♣. The nit bet $18 on the $22 pot, and the author called. The large blind folded.
The turn was T♣. The nit bet $58 on the $76 pot, and the author called.
The river was 6♦. The nit went all-in for $117 into the $192 pot, and the author called.
What unfathomable, completely unknowable hand did the nit hold? He had K♣ J♣, the second-nuts. Who could have guessed?
Without a flush, most nits would slow down in the river. Even with a set of aces, most nits would be cautious on the river, fearing a flush. Top pair/top kicker is frequently a good enough hand to compete for stacks in an online 6-max game.
But in this case, the decision to play for stacks by calling the final river bet was disastrous because the nit would never make that bet with anything worse than AK. Indeed, the hand was a disaster from start to finish.
What is the moral of the story? There are two. First, don’t pay off nits in large sums. If they appear to want to get the money in, they have a valid motive. Get out of the path. Second, everyone makes mistakes from time to time. Next time you do something extremely stupid, remember this hand and give yourself a break.
Nits, like Setminers, are particularly vulnerable to theft. You can steal the bulk of the pots you play against them since they won’t put their money in unless they have a big hand, which they rarely do. Steal their blinds and rely on them following the flop. You won’t defeat them in the big pots, but you may take the majority of the smaller ones.
The Nitty Tight-Aggressive (TAG): 17/13 The Solid TAG: 21/17
The Loose TAG: 24/20
Most victors in online $1-$2 6-max games use a TAG strategy. These styles can range from a tight 17/13 fit to a more relaxed 24/20 fit. Unlike Setminer and Nit, there is no straightforward approach for defeating these players. You can’t simply ignore their strong hands and steal their blinds as you can with Setminers and Nits since TAG players are known to steal back.
You can presume that players with TAG styles want to play well. They’ve most certainly read a few books (including this one) and are considering their play. That does not imply they play well. Many TAGs make a lot of mistakes. Numbers like 17/13 and 24/20 simply describe preflop play. Some TAGs use an acceptable preflop approach but lose when the flop comes. If you understand the concepts presented in this article, you should be able to identify and exploit your TAG opponents’ flaws both before and after the flip.
Having saying that, avoid games in which all of your opponents use the TAG style. Even if you can beat TAGs, there are generally games with at least one lesser player who you can beat for a higher profit.
The Thinking Loose-Aggressive (LAG): 29/24
Thinking LAG players can also earn large sums of money. Indeed, if you play roughly as described in this tutorial, you’re likely to end up with stats that fall into this category. The key difference between a Thinking LAG and a TAG player is that Thinking LAGs attempt to steal the blinds more frequently. For example, if you try to steal the blinds as frequently as we mentioned in the first section, your stats will almost likely be looser than the TAGs you use.
Most Thinking LAG opponents will have flaws, much like the TAGs you play against. For example, you may frequently persuade someone to attempt to steal pots that they have no legitimate reason to steal. Furthermore, like with TAGs, no basic tactic will be effective against Thinking LAG players.
Almost all gamers who consistently make money will employ one of the prior strategies. In other words, we’ve simply finished talking about the best players. Now let’s speak about the negative ones.
The Wet Noodle: 22/7
This player type’s stats can vary significantly. Players of this category typically have VP$IP stats in the upper teens or low- to mid-twenties. So they aren’t very loose preflop. However, their aggression numbers—particularly PFR—are significantly lower than those of stronger players.
These players limp into many pots, often from out of position. This trend accounts for their much larger VP$IP values than their PFRs. Following the flop, they are less likely to deviate from the rules. They may semibluff a nice drawing hand or make a moderate raise with a hand similar to top pair/weak kicker on occasion. However, they rarely exploit their advantage and are unlikely to attempt multistreet bluffs.
They can differ in their readiness to call down with weak hands. They will sometimes play tightly, allowing most weak hands to bet heavily on the turn and/or river. Sometimes they become frustrated by aggressive play and call down lightly.
It’s simple to get an edge on a Wet Noodle. They frequently limp in from the wrong position. When they limp in front of you, you penalize their error by performing isolated raises from the cutoff and button with a wide range of hands. So, if they limp in for $2, you should bet $11 (give or take a few dollars) on the button with any hand you contemplate playing. You’ll be playing the majority of your hands against them from a positional advantage, which will offer you a significant advantage.
Overall, Wet Noodles are not formidable opponents. You can play the majority of your hands against them with position, and they don’t respond well to postflop aggression.
The Totally Clueless: 65/7
If you identify a player with a high VP$IP (more than 40) and a low PFR (less than 15), you have a Totally Clueless player. These players are crucial to the games. They limp in with trash from another position and demand isolated hikes. Then they bumble about the postflop streets, looking for stupid and hilarious ways to squander their investments.
If you observe one of these players sitting with a full stack or more, take a seat, ideally to their left. In the “Isolating Bad Players” section, we’ll discuss how to get the most out of these players.
The Crazy LAG: 53/39
Crazy LAG players differ from Thinking LAG players (as seen above with example stats 29/24) in two significant ways. First, Crazy LAGs tend to play looser preflop, entering numerous pots with trash hands from out of position. Second, their postflop aggression is more random, indicating weak hand reading skills.
These players are profitable opponents. They, like the Wet Noodles and the Totally Clueless, are far too likely to play hands out of position. As a result, you may isolate them from the button and cutoff, providing a continuous advantage.
When dealing with Crazy LAGs, the primary danger to avoid is folding too frequently postflop. Crazy LAGs typically have high postflop aggression to match their high VP$IP. They frequently go all-in on the flop with top pair/no kicker, middle pair, or even worse. This is especially true when they play with less than a full stack. They will unleash massive but occasionally futile bluffs at the least provocation.
You will not fare well against Crazy LAGs if you play weakly, checking good cards and then folding them under pressure. Adopting a fit or fold strategy will result in you folding considerably more frequently than required or prudent. However, you can take advantage of their crazy by pushing solid hands, such as top pair with a decent kicker, farther than you typically would. You can even purposefully demonstrate weakness with manufactured hands in order to induce crazy bluffs.
Don’t Jam A Square Peg Into A Round Hole
Don’t categorize your opponents too strictly. These labels are intended to help you get started with statistics-based profiling. They’re not rigid. There is no clear demarcation between where one label ends and another begins. Many players will fall into two or more categories. Typically, you should expect a player transitioning between categories to exhibit features of each category.
Beyond The Basic Stats
The basic statistics are quite useful for quick profiling. Using only these figures, you may approximately categorize any opponent into one of the aforementioned groups and make reasonable assumptions about their hand ranges, bluffing frequencies, and so on.
With a HUD, you can rapidly determine the profitability of any table by checking the basic stats of each player at the table. If you notice a 60/12 and a 49/33 player at the same table, take a seat. And if no one at the table has a VP$IP greater than 23, look elsewhere. (Or sit down and grab their blinds while you search elsewhere.)
However, contemporary tracking software packages provide far more information than just these statistics. They keep track of preflop 3-betting percentages, continuation betting percentages, postflop folding rates, and other metrics. You can utilize these supplementary stats to learn even more about your opponents’ styles.
Throughout the course, we will use both basic and supplementary stats to profile our opponents. So far, we’ve only scratched the surface.
Examples
Stats may be unfamiliar to you, but it won’t take long to translate statistics like 24/20 into a mental image of an actual hand range. Here are some basic examples to get you started. All examples come from a six-handed $1-$2 game.
Example 1
The first three players fold, so you open for $5 on the button with Q♠ 8♠. The small blind calls, leaving $100 behind. He is 49/26. That places him in our Crazy LAG group above. For perspective, a 49 percent preflop range looks like this:
- 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+
- 98s-65s, 97s-86s, 96s
- A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o
The huge blind calls, leaving $195 behind. His stats are 11/9, indicating he’s a Nit. In this circumstance, his range would most likely be:
- 44+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs
- No suited connectors AJo+, KQo
The flop is Q♥ 9♠4♣. The small blind contributes $10 to the $15 pot. The large blind folds. What is your best play?
You are most likely ahead of the small blind. His preflop range was extensive, and he might be leading into you with a variety of hands you would beat, such as top pair/worse kicker, middle pair, a straight draw, bottom pair, and so on. You should be content to commit with the top pair here, even if your kicker isn’t particularly excellent. If you call his bet, the pot will be $35, and he will have $90 remaining. You should simply raise the flip and be prepared to call a shove. You’ll see a player like him go all-in on rubbish.
On the Q ♥ 9♠4♣ flop, however, the action differs slightly. Say the small blind checks, the big blind checks, and you wager $10. The small blind calls, and the big blind raises to $40. This is an entirely different issue, despite the fact that your hand is identical. Your equity is far lower, and the effective stacks are nearly twice as huge.
The large blind’s preflop range was already limited, but his checkraising range is extensive now. The board is relatively dry (few draws), thus he is unlikely to be semibluffing with a draw. (A nitty player would typically call with jack-ten after a bet and a call.) His manufactured hands have you crushed—top pair/better kicker, a set, and the rare strangely played AA or KK. In this situation, the best play is to fold.
Example 2
Effective stacks cost $200. A Solid TAG opens for $7 in the middle position. His statistics are 22/20. The cutoff folds and you’re on the button with A♥ T♥. The tiny blind is 9/8 Setminer, while the big blind is Totally Clueless 63/9. Your hand performs well against the TAG’s range, and you have position. The setminer will most likely fold, but you should play as many hands as can against the completely inexperienced player. You make a flat call to entice him to enter the pot with his diverse range. The small blind folds, and the large blind calls.
The flop is A♣ 6♦ 2♥. The large blind checks, and the preflop raiser puts $15 into the $22 pot. His statistics show that he makes continuation bets 89 percent of the time. As a result, his current range is quite broad. He may be betting with a pocket pair below aces, a top pair with a stronger or worse kicker than you, or a completely messed up hand. Again, you don’t want to encourage the large blind to fold. He could possibly have a worse hand to play with, such as a weaker ace, an underpair, a middle pair, or even a bottom pair. You decide to flat call and watch what happens during the turn. The large blind overcalls.
The turn is 3♠. Let’s talk about a few possible circumstances.
If the big blind checks and the TAG places a solid bet, you have two viable options. For starters, you could seriously consider folding. Typically, a TAG will not wager if you beat two individuals with multiple hands. While his c-betting range is extensive, he rarely fires a second barrel with hands worse than top pair. A hefty turn bet here typically indicates top pair with a good kicker, a set, or even a straight (i.e., he bet the flop with 54 and hit his gutshot on the turn). He’ll almost always fold his pure bluffs and check the turn for pot control with top pair/weak kicker. This is a slightly odd circumstance because he may be modifying his play to the weak large blind, thus there is a potential he will wager an ace here. As a result, your alternative choice is to flat call again, intending to fold to the TAG’s river bet.*
On the other hand, if both the large blind and the TAG check the turn, you should bet. A turn check from the TAG is typically a white flag that indicates you have the best hand. You do not want to offer both opponents a free card. Place a value bet. The huge blind will frequently call with weaker cards. He was your primary aim to begin with. In fact, if he calls the turn and the TAG folds, you should definitely also bet the river for value.
Example 3
Effective stacks cost $200. The first two players fold, so you open for $7 in the cutoff with 8♣ 7♣. The button, tiny blind fold, and large blind call. His statistics are 15/11. According to our categorization, he falls somewhere between a Nit and a Nitty TAG. A 15% preflop range looks like this:
- 22+, A7s+, KTs+, QTs+ JTs-T9s, J9s
- ATo+, KQo
The flop is 7♥ 6♦ 3♠. The large blind checks, and you bet $11 on the $15 pot. He raises the check to $44. What’s your move?
You have a weak top pair, and your opponent is tight. His checkraising range is presumably limited to overpairs and sets. You are in poor trouble. The default behavior here should be to fold.
