Let’s use the 64 Squares principle with no-limit hold’em. A poker hand, like a chess game, can take an extremely wide variety of directions. For example, you keep pocket threes under the pistol. One way that the hand could travel is:
You fold, the following player raises, and everyone else folds.
Another is:
You raise the pot, but only the huge blind calls. The flop comes 6♥ 6♦5♣ . You wager half of the pot, and your opponent folds.
Change one little detail in that last example, such as a board card or your bet size, and the hand will take a different direction. However, you should not be overwhelmed by the possibilities. Fortunately, we don’t have to analyze each conceivable path separately to succeed. We only need an overarching plan that delivers a profit on average across all options.
There are only two ways to make money in no-limit hold’em.
There are just two methods to make money in no-limit hold’em. They are:
- Make the best best hand
- Steal the pot
All of your profits come from one of these two methods, or a mixture of the two.
By “create the best hand,” we mean your anticipation of winning the showdown. This category includes a variety of poker words such as pot equity, showdown equity, showdown value, implied odds, implied equity, and many more. To make things simple, let’s refer to a hand’s ability to earn money at showdown as showdown equity.
By “steal the pot,” we mean your expectation of winning the pot before the showdown. Fold equity, folding equity, steal equity, and so on are all pertinent concepts here. We’ll discuss a hand’s ability to gain money before showdown, also known as steal equity.
Every hand contains both showdown and steal equity. For instance, suppose you have 87s on the button. You might win by making two pairs and winning the showdown. Alternatively, you may win by raising before the flop, betting the flop with no pair, and seeing your opponents fold. The showdown equity and steal equity combine to make the hand profitable.
This rationale applies to all starting hands, including pocket aces, which have both showdown and steal equity. While showdown equity accounts for the majority of the hand’s worth, there is also some steal equity. For example, if you have black aces and four diamonds on the river, you can attempt a massive bluff to force your opponent to fold a medium-sized flush. Pocket aces are certainly a great starting hand even if you never bluff with them, but they are even more rewarding if you use steal equity when the opportunity arises.
In both preceding situations, showdown equity and steal equity work together to make the hand profitable. With the 87s, if you focus on one form of equity while ignoring the others, the hand will not be profitable.
With aces, you have so much showdown equity that you can overlook steal equity while remaining lucrative. However, in many circumstances, combining the two equities is insufficient to make the hand lucrative.
For example, say you have 7♦2♠ under the gun. You’ve got showdown equity and steal equity. After all, you can flop a complete house or raise to win the blinds. However, due to your weak hand and bad position, these equities are usually quite modest—too small to justify risking money to profit from them.
- All hands possess two types of equity: showdown equity and steal equity.
- When the aggregate equity is more than the risk you take to play, the scenario is profitable.
- When the combined equity is insufficient to cover the risk, fold.
