Stealing well is essential for no-limit success. However, most lower stakes players are more concerned with making hands than with stealing. This overemphasis on making hands limits most small stakes regulars to mediocre success. They win a lot of money in showdown pots, but they lose almost as much in non-showdown pots, and their overall winrates are close to zero. If you have this problem, we will repair it.
Stealing and making the best hand might have a significant overlap. For instance, suppose you have 9♦8♦ and utterly miss the flop of A♣ J♥ 4♣. You should quickly consider, “Can I steal?” However, if your opponent only has 7♥ 6♥, you have the best hand.
Frequently, everyone misses the flip or makes a weak hand, resulting in a game of chicken: whomever blinks first loses. Assume you have the 9♦8♦ and the flop is A♣ J♥ 8♣. Now you have a third pair.
However, unless your opponents check it all the way to the river and your weak hand holds up, you will rarely win the showdown. You should choose to take the pot down sooner. We consider such instances to be theft, even if your weaker hand is the best.
In marginal hand situations, stealing is frequently used to generate profit. If you can’t steal in these instances, either because you’re out of position, you don’t feel comfortable stealing, or your opponents refuse to cooperate, you should usually play tightly preflop.
Assume you are in early position and one or two tough, aggressive opponents are about to enter the pot behind you. Fold speculative hands, such as 8♠ 7♠ and A♣ 7♣, as they rely on stealing for profit.*
* We’re presuming your opponents won’t consistently pay off a couple bets with middle pair or pay off huge the few occasions you have a good hand.
Playing speculative hands in early positions is a typical and significant leak. You should play very tight in early position unless you can steal well or it’s a loose game with few massive preflop raises.* In a 10-handed game, this implies folding anything under the gun except pairs, AK-AJ, and KQ. If you don’t read hands properly, you might be better off folding AJ, KQ, or even AQo.
This may seem silly if you’re used to loose, simple games. However, in more difficult games, playing speculative hands out of position is disastrous for players who do not steal a fair part of the missing pots.
When you have low steal equity, you should play much tighter preflop, regardless of position. That guideline does not apply only to inferior players. In challenging situations, for example, you will frequently face opponents that call on the button with a wide range of cards and then use position to steal well postflop. If you encounter one of these opponents and are unable to hold your own, you should play tight preflop, even from the cutoff in a 6-handed game.
The rule of thumb is straightforward.
Avoid playing speculative hands unless you expect to have a lot of steal equity.
Here’s a more general case:
If you have low steal equity, you must have high showdown equity to play. Otherwise, you should fold.
Here’s how that translates into early position play:
If you are out of position and unable to steal efficiently, fold unless you have a pair, the most likely best big card hand, or you believe you will be rewarded enough when you hit to pay your preflop costs.
On the other hand, if you’re adept at stealing from an unfavourable position, many marginal hand situations become advantageous. Here is the bottom line. Play tight or learn to steal.
