If you’re like most players, you’ve tried to bluff a wild player who will call anything. It does not work. You can’t steal if they don’t fold.
Several basic variables make it easier to steal. They include:
- Position
- Stacks are deep enough that opponents are unlikely to commit with just one pair
- With fewer players, the likelihood of encountering a large hand decreases
- nonaggressive or timid opponents
- An image that encourages staling
If you have enough of these criteria, you have steal equity and should consider playing for it. If you don’t have these characteristics and won’t be stealing, you should avoid even suited connectors and other moderately appealing preflop hands.
Here are a few hand examples:
1 – You have 7♣ 6♣ on the button in a tough 6-handed $1–$2 online game with $200 (100bb) stacks
One player raises to $6. You are extremely unlikely to hold the best hand. But you’re in good form to steal. You re-raise to $24. Everyone folds. Alternatively, your opponent calls and checks to you on the flop. You bet $35. He folds.
Sometimes your opponent may reraise you, or one of the blinds will act, or you will be checkraised on the flop. However, as long as this does not happen frequently, you can profit from stealing. Having a strong hand with your 7♣ 6♣ is merely a backup strategy.
Now, replay the hand out of place. You have 7♣ 6♣ under the gun in a difficult $1-$2 online game with 100bb stacks. You rise to $6.
The cutoff calls. You missed the flop, as you usually do. You make a $12 continuation bet. Your opponent makes a call. Is he trying to bluff you on the turn? Is he calling with his real hand? You do not know. You could fire a second bluff on the turn or checkraise with nothing, but that can be costly. Throughout the hand, your opponent will be able to capitalize on knowing your action before you know his.
Alternatively, imagine the cutoff raises your preflop value to $24. Should you reraise him? Perhaps occasionally, but if you make a habit of it, your opponent will catch on and you will lose money.
2 – Stacks deep enough that opponents are unlikely to commit with one
You have $400 (200BB) in a reasonably difficult 6-max 1-$2 game. You open for $6 from the cutoff using T♥9♥. The huge blind increases to $18. You call, intending to outplay him post-flop. The flip shows K♠ J♠ 4♣, resulting in a gutshot straight draw. Your opponent checks. You bet $30. He goes all-in on the checkraise. You realize later that he started with only $60, thus his all-in is only $12 more. You’re getting 9-to-1 on your money and two cards to come, so you call. He holds K♣ Q♠. You went all-in as a nearly 6-to-1 dog.
What exactly went wrong? Preflop, each player contributed 9bb to the pot. Your opponent was only 21bb behind. He was unlikely to fold top pair if he hit. Indeed, in aggressive situations, he would be hard pressed to fold second pair, especially since you will frequently raise the flop if he checks. He only needs to checkraise all-in to make an average profit.
The preflop raise from the cutoff with T♥9♥ is acceptable. Calling a raise to 9bb from a player with a 30bb stack is terrible. The only sensible options are to fold or reraise, and folding is usually preferable. Now play the hand with larger stacks. This time, you’re both starting with $400.
You raise to $6 using T♥9♥ from the cutoff. The massive blind makes it $18, and you call. The flop is K♠ J♠ 4♣. He bets $30. If you play back at him now or on the turn, he will be in a terrible position. He only has top pair, and the stacks are deep.
Suppose you place a $30 flop bet. The pot then reaches around $100. Meanwhile, your opponent has the best hand, is not committed, and has two streets remaining to play. If he checks, you have a fantastic steal opportunity. Suppose he checks and you bet $70. That gamble forces him to make a painful decision. If he calls, he has put a third of his stack in when not committed, and he is at your disposal on the river. Your bet requires him to estimate for a large sum of money.
Deeper stacks make stealing easier because opponents are less likely to risk their entire stack.
3 – Few enough players that you aren’t likely to run into a big hand
In a 6-handed $1-$2 online game, you have A♦5♦ under your pistol. Should you play? Assuming you’ll come in for a raise, calculate how frequently you’ll be raised preflop. If someone reraises significantly, you will be forced to fold or put in far too much money out of position with a terrible hand. (This presupposes that re-raising a bluff is not advantageous.)
Fortunately for you, your opponents in this game are relatively tight and will typically reraise with AA-JJ, AK, and the occasional suited connector or other hand. The chances of any one opponent holding such a hand are about one in thirty.
The chances of one or more of your five opponents having a reraising hand are approximately one in six. Overall, around one-sixth of the time you raise with a tiny suited ace under the gun, you will fold before seeing the flop.
This is a huge challenge to overcome. You’ll have to steal frequently to make up for it. In a $1-$2 6-handed game, most players consider playing A♦5♦ under the gun to be a huge leak.
Assume it is folded to you on the button with A♦5♦ in the same game. With only two players left, the likelihood of being elevated reduces to around 1 in 15. As the number of players decreases, the likelihood of encountering a large hand decreases significantly.
4 – Nonaggressive or timid opponents
In a 6-handed online $1-$2 game, raise from the button to $7 using A♥ 9♥. The large blind reraises. He is not aggressive, thus he probably has a large hand. You fold.
Alternatively, use small blind calls. He is a timid player. The flop shows Q♠ 7♥ 6♣, giving you ace-high. He checks. You bet $10. You
Will frequently take the pot down on the flip. If he calls, he’ll nearly always have top pair or better, allowing you to shut down and wait for another opportunity.
A more aggressive opponent may reraise out of the blinds preflop with a variety of hands. Alternatively, he may checkraise you with air on the flop. Both activities typically reduce your earnings from stealing.
5 – An image conducive to stealing
In a $1-$2 game, you’ve only played a few hands in the last two hours, so no one can accuse you of being on tilt. You raise to $6 initially, then act from the cutoff of 5♠ 4♠. Only the button initiates the call. The flop of K♣ J♦9♣ skips you entirely. You check, the button bets $8, and you check raise to $24. He thinks about it momentarily before folding.
Now, let’s update the backstory. You’ve played a lot of hands in the last two hours and recently suffered a bad beat on your stack. You rise to
$6 with 5♠4♠. The button makes a call. The flop is K♣ J♦ 9♣. You check, he bets $8, and you checkraise $24. He thinks briefly before calling. Your crazy play has increased his likelihood of calling. Unfortunately, you still don’t know if he has a large hand or is calling to see what you do. He may even be calling with nothing to bet large on the turn because he is sick of you pushing him around. In either case, your chances of winning the hand are lower.
A tight image can make it easier to steal. However, other images can also be useful. Assume you go all-in multiple times in a short span. Opponents may tighten up preflop to avoid your aggressive bets when they hit a pair.
These are fundamental notions concerning theft. None are absolute. For example, you may find it easier to steal out of position if your opponents believe you have a strong hand. Alternatively, it may be easier to steal from an aggressive opponent if he folds under pressure. In general, however, stealing is simpler when you have position, deeper stacks, fewer prospective opponents, non-aggressive opponents, and a stealable image.
When calculating steal equity, remember that the most successful steals occur when no one flops top pair or better. In these instances, the player who places the final bet normally wins. If you play chicken skillfully, you get more value from stealing. That’s why a competent loose aggressive player can perform so well against weak-tight opponents, especially in shorthanded games.
With this fundamental primer on equity and stealing under your belt, you’re ready to go.
