Many casual sports bettors don’t pay attention to the NFL bye week for whatever reason. It is quite unexpected because most teams take advantage of the additional time off to recuperate and get ready for their opponents.
Before 1990, every NFL club played 16 straight games. To try to prevent injuries, the league decided to give each team a bye week throughout the season, which would be selected at random to keep things fair. The bye week initially made things difficult for sports bettors, but in 2004 the league changed its schedule to have it come between weeks 4 and 10. This has given professional sports bettors a small window of opportunity to profit.
In terms of betting, most people would assume that a team playing at home after a bye week would have an advantage over their opponents. However, since 2000, home teams following a bye week have an even break record of 152-149-4 against the spread. With a 159-142-4 record, the total points scored are in favor of those who chose the under.
However, considering that road teams have a 127-103-5 record after a bye week, they have performed remarkably well over the period. With 118 games ending under, 115 games going over, and 2 ending in a push, the total points scored this time around is very much dead even.
An additional statistic to take into account is the outcome of the previous game for the team coming off a bye week. Pre-bye week teams who have lost their last game have gone 127-114-4 against the spread, while teams that have won their last game have gone 152-138-5 against the spread.
The fact that the favorites have been extremely successful after a bye week is the one thing that hasn’t changed over the years. They have a 56% winning rate after going 171-135-4 against the spread since 2000. With a record of 104-113-5, or a 48% winning rate, the underdogs after a bye week haven’t performed as well, thus you should always back the favorites following a bye because they have a higher chance of winning.
From 2007 to 2010, the teams who rested after a bye week had a winning percentage of 61-44-5 against the spread and 65-54-1 straight up when playing teams that had played the week before.
Teams that were favorites to win and were coming off a bye week had a 48-12 record straight up and a 36-20-4 record against the spread during that time. Conversely, underdogs had a 17-32-1 straight-up record and a 25-24-1 record against the spread.
We further deconstructed these statistics and obtained some intriguing findings. During that time, home favorites were 21-19-2 against the spread and 31-11 straight up. The road favorites were 15-1-2 against the spread and 17-1 straight up. The home team’s underdog record was 11-6-1 against the spread and 9-8-1 straight up. With an 8-24 record straight up and a 14-18 record against the spread, the road underdogs performed even worse.
When it comes to betting on teams following their bye week, these stats make it clear that the road favorites are the greatest option because they cover the spread nearly 70% of the time.
The adage “a stronger team benefits more from a bye week” is true, and we can see how true it is by examining how well the favorites have performed versus their rivals following a week off. The favorites coming off their bye week have a 56-13 straight up and 43-22-4 against the spread, based on statistics from 2007 to 2010. The house favorites are 37-11 against the spread and 26-20-2 when playing straight up. More remarkable than that, the road favorites have a 19-2 record both straight up and against the spread.
The one thing about betting patterns that you should constantly keep in mind is that they are subject to change. As such, you should be prepared to adjust when the current trend ends. Till then, enjoy yourself while earning some cash with the bye week betting method.
