If you love making Over/Under wagers that remove the thinking involved in a difficult ATS pick and you’re looking for value on the upcoming week 5 slate of NFL action, then consider your ticket punched!

I’ve got an Over/Under pick on Sunday night’s Week 5 matchup between the Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans that looks like a virtual lock from where I’m sitting. Now, let’s find out what the pick is.

Sunday Night Football: Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans

Game Information

🏈: Sunday Night Football: Dallas Cowboys (2-2) at Houston Texans (1-3)
⏰: Sun. Oct 7, 2018, 8:20 PM ET
🏟️: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
📺: NBC
🎰: Houston Texans -3 -120 | -165 | U 45½ -110

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys got past Detroit 26-24 on Brett Maher’s game-winning 38-yard field goal as time expired last weekend. The Boys were led to victory by running back Ezekiel Elliott who rushed for 152 yards and added 88 receiving yards in the win.

“Anywhere you got him the ball, anywhere he had the ball in his hands, he was dominating the game and setting the tone, from the screens to the check-downs to that last play right there,” quarterback Dak Prescott said afterward. “It was just a dominating performance for him.”

Dallas played Over the game’s 43.5-point Over/under total after starting off the season with three consecutive Under outcomes.

Sunday Night Football: Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans_Dak-Prescott

Houston Texans

The Texans got their first victory of 2018 by squeaking past Indianapolis 37-34 in overtime thanks to a crazy call by Colts head coach Frank Reich. Deshaun Watson passed for 375 yards with two touchdowns and one interception while rushing six times for 41 yards and another score.

“It was very unconventional, but we’ll take it,” J.J. Watt said after recording two more sacks to become the second-fastest in league history to 80 career sacks.

The final score played well over the 48-point total one week after the Texans also topped a 44-point total against the Giants to even their O/U record at 2-2 on the season.

Sunday Night Football: Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans_Deshaun-Watson

Expert Pick and Prediction

The Under might be 4-0 in the last four meetings between these in-state rivals, but I’m going with the Over 45.5 total points – even though the vast majority of trends for this pairing suggests the under is the way to go. While the Under is 6-0 in Dallas’ last 6 games following a straight up win and a consistent 21-6 in their last 27 road games, the Over is 5-0 in Cowboys’ last 5 games in the month of October.

The Over is also 17-2 in Houston’s last 22 games in the month of October and 30-14 in their last 44 games after getting more than 250 passing yards in their previous game.

I know these two teams are averaging a combined 40.0 points per game, but the Texans have averaged 32.0 points per game over their last two and I believe Deshaun Watson is going to put 30 on the board in this one while Prescott and the Boys score at least 20 to easily top the total for this Week 5 affair. Houston wins and the Over cashes in!

Predicted Score Texans 31 Cowboys 23

Sunday Night Football: Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans Winner