If you love making Over/Under wagers that take the guesswork out of often arduous ATS picks and you’re looking for some O/U Total value on the upcoming week 5 slate of NFL games, then look no further.
I’ve got an Over/Under pick on Thursday Night Football Week 5 matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots that looks like a virtual lock from where I’m sitting.
Now, let’s find out what the pick is.
Thursday Night Football: Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
🏈: Thursday Night Football: Indianapolis Colts (1-3) at New England Patriots(2-2)
⏰: Thu. Oct 4, 2018 8:20 PM ET
🏟️: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
📺: FOX, NFL, DTV: 212
🎰: New England Patriots -10 -110 | -525 | U 53 -110
Indianapolis Colts (1-3)
The Colts fought really hard in their 37-34 overtime loss to Houston this past weekend but ended up losing thanks to a completely awful decision by head coach Frank Reich that completely gave the Texans the easy win. Andrew Luck completed 40 of 62 passes for 464 yards with four TD passes, but in the end, it wasn’t enough. Reich inexplicably tried to convert a fourth-and-4 from his own 43 yard line with 24 seconds remaining in OT when a punt would have effectively made the outcome a tie.
“We’re not playing to tie,” Reich said. “We’re going for that 10 times out of 10. That (play) has just got to work.”
New England Patriots(2-2)
The Patriots bounced back from consecutive losses to beat the hell out of Miami in its 38-7 on Sunday. Tom Brady passed for 274 yards and three touchdowns to lead the Pats to victory to improve to 15-1 as a starter against Miami.
“We hadn’t played well in the last weeks,” Brady said. “This game’s great. But you’ve gotta turn the page.”
New England held Miami to just 172 yards of total offense but lost tight end Rob Gronkowski to an ankle injury in the second half. Rookie running back Sony Michel rushed 25 times for 112 yards and one score while veteran James Whited added 44 rushing yards and one touchdown on eight carries while contributing another 68 yards and one score on eight receptions.
Expert Pick and Prediction
First, let me admit that Indianapolis is a lot more competitive this season than I expected them to be. Having said that, I’m still expecting New England to put a bunch of points on the board against the Colts’ uninspiring defense. You see, while Indy is putting up a decent 23.5 points per game, the Colts are also giving up 25.0 points per game defensively.
Indianapolis has also given up at least 34 points in two of their four games this season and that just doesn’t look very good heading into New England to face a Patriots team that seemed to have found their way against Miami last weekend.
The Over is 7-1 in Indy’s last eight meetings against New England and 4-1 in their last five road dates against the Pats. While the Under is 4-2 in New England’s last six home games and 1-3 for the Pats this season, the Over looks like the easy pick for me in this matchup.
I like Andrew Luck and company to reach the 21-point plateau while Tom Brady and the Pats put at least 30 points on the board against Indy’s lackluster defense. The Patriots win and cover while the Over plays out for O/U Total bettors like you!
Predicted Score: Patriots 35 Colts 21