With two of the best defenses in the league squaring off on Thursday Night Football, NFL betting enthusiasts that like to bet the total, need to know whether the Over or the Under is the way to go on this intriguing Week 14 pairing. Will defense rule the day or will Mariota and Jacksonville’s Cody Kessler put more than their fair share of points on the board?
With Jacksonville looking to play spoiler and Tennessee looking to boost its playoff hopes, let’s find out what the total pick is for this divisional showdown.
— Nissan Stadium (@NissanStadium) December 3, 2018
Thursday Night Football: Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
What: Thursday Night Football: Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8) at Tennessee Titans (6-6)
When: Thursday, December 6, 2018, 8:20 PM ET
Where: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
Slight Chance Light Rain: 6°C | 43°F
Wind: 2 MPH NW
Stadium Type: Open Air
Jacksonville got past Indianapolis 6-0 in a totally ugly affair to snap a seven-game losing streak just as I predicted in the YouWager sportsbook last week. Jalen Ramsey and the Jags defense shut down Andrew Luck and the previously streaking Colts to get the narrow win. Still, I’m not really excited about the fact that Cody Kessler went 18 for 24 for 150 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions or that Carlos Hyde rushed for all of 36 yards on 13 carries. The Jaguars averages 16.9 points per game (30th) while holding the opposition to just 20.2 points per game to rank fifth overall in points allowed.
• Under is 4-1 in Jaguars last 5 games following a straight up win.
• Under is 4-1 in Jaguars last 5 vs. AFC South.
• Under is 4-1 in Jaguars last 5 games following an ATS win.
• Over is 4-1 in Jaguars last 5 games in Week 14.
• Under is 14-6 in Jaguars last 20 vs. AFC.
Tennessee looked pretty awful through almost three quarters against the lowly New York Jets this past weekend before getting their act together late to pick up a 26-22 win and keep their playoff hopes alive. Marcus Mariota passed for 282 yards with two touchdowns and one interception while Derrick Henry added a rushing score in the win. Mariota, who led Tennessee to 13 fourth-quarter points, recorded the 12th game-winning drive of his career and eighth since the start of the 2017 season. The Titans average a modest 18.4 points per game (27th) while allowing just 20.4 points per game defensively to rank sixth in points allowed.
• Under is 4-1 in Titans last 5 games following a straight up win.
• Under is 7-2 in Titans last 9 vs. AFC.
• Over is 5-2 in Titans last 7 Thursday games.
• Under is 5-2 in Titans last 7 games on grass.
• Over is 39-18-3 in Titans last 60 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Expert Pick and Prediction
For this Thursday night affair, I’m going to be completely honest by saying that the 37-point total makes this a difficult call and one so tough, that I have my final score ending up exactly on 37 points! The Under is 5-0 in Jacksonville’s last 5 games on grass, 4-0 in Tennessee’s last 4 games in Week 14 and 6-1 in the Titans’ last 7 games against their AFC South division rivals. While I’ve got this game finishing exactly on 37 points, my best advice is to play the under.
First of all, both of these teams have elite defenses that don’t give up a lot of points. Combine that with the fact that both teams have uninspiring offenses that struggle to score – and I just don’t see either team topping the 20-point plateau. I’ve got the Titans winning by a field goal and just reaching 20 points in the process. However, a 17-14 final score also feels about right, so, I say play the Under NFL total bettors.
Predicted Score: Tennessee Titans 20 | Jacksonville Jaguars 17