Will Drew Brees and the high-scoring New Orleans Saints erupt for another 40-point outburst on Thursday night when they hit the Lone Star state for their Week 13 date against Dallas? Will the defensive-minded Boys somehow manage to find a way to shut down Brees and company to get the huge upset over an incendiary Saints team that is by far, the hottest in all of football?
If you like to make Over/Under total wagers, then let’s get to my expert pick right now.
Thursday Night Football: New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys
What: Thursday Night Football: New Orleans Saints (10-1) at Dallas Cowboys (6-5)
When: Thursday, November 29, 2018, 8:20 PM ET
Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Clear: 15°C | 60°F
Wind: 6 MPH S
Stadium Type: Retractable Roof
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans (9-2 ATS) has won 10 straight including their ‘routine’ 31-17 smackdown of Atlanta last Thursday night as an 11.5-point home favorite. The ‘modest’ 31 points the Saints scored the last time out snapped a three-game streak of putting 45 or more on the board. Still, New Orleans is ranked first in scoring (37.2 ppg) and a respectable 15th in points allowed (23.3 ppg). The Saints have scored 40 points or more six times this season and three times in their last four games. New Orleans has topped the 50-point plateau while scoring 45 or more three times.
- Under is 6-0-1 in Saints last 7 Thursday games.
- Under is 8-3 in Saints last 11 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Saints last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 12-5 in Saints last 17 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
The Cowboys (6-5 ATS) have won three straight including their convincing 31-23 win over Washington last weekend. Recently acquired No. 1 wide receiver Amari Cooper had a breakout performance by catching eight passes for 180 yards and two touchdowns. Still, Dallas ranks an uninspiring 23rd in scoring (21.3 ppg) and they’ve been held to 20 points or less six times this season. The good news is that the Boys also rank a stellar fourth in points allowed (19.4 ppg). The Cowboys have held five of their last six opponents to 20 points or less.
- Over is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 home games.
- Under is 9-1 in Cowboys last 10 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games in November.
- Over is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 games on FieldTurf.
- Under is 7-2 in Cowboys last 9 games following an ATS win.
- Under is 8-3 in Cowboys last 11 vs. NFC.
- Over is 5-2 in Cowboys last 7 Thursday games.
- Under is 5-2 in Cowboys last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 14-6 in Cowboys last 20 games overall.
Expert Pick and Prediction
I won’t even lie. I’ve been impressed by Dallas the last three weeks even though they didn’t beat any real Super Bowl contenders along the way. Having said that, I see absolutely no way that Dallas either manages to either stop the saints from lighting up the scoreboard or pulling off the upset over New Orleans in this game.
With that said, I’m thinking New Orleans tops the 30-point plateau while Dallas approaches 20 points. The Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two when they meet in Dallas and 4-1 in the last 5 meetings overall. I’ve got this one narrowly topping the 52.5-point total, but I’ll admit. It’s going to be close!
Predicted Score: New Orleans Saints 35 | Dallas Cowboys 20