While letting your dog off the chain could get you in big trouble in your local municipality, backing a dog that is off the chain is a good thing when it comes to betting on NFL football action.
To that end, I’ve got a trio of week 10 expert picks featuring three underdogs that are all barking quite loudly heading into their respective matchups this coming weekend. With that thought in mind and the new week set to get underway on Thursday night, let’s get started.
Thursday Night Football: Carolina Panthers Vs Pittsburgh Steelers
🏈: Thursday Night Football: Carolina Panthers (6-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2-1)
⏰: Thursday, November 8, 2018, 8:20 PM ET
🏟️: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA
📺: ESPN, DTV: 206
🎰: Pittsburgh Steelers -4 -110 | U 50½ -110
While the Pittsburgh Steelers have won four straight including their hard-fought 23-16 win over Baltimore on Sunday, I’m going to advise you to back Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers to cover the chalk in this contest as 5-point road dogs. While Pittsburgh averages approximately one point per game more than Carolina does offensively, the Panthers limit the opposition to one fewer point per game than Pittsburgh does defensively. The Panthers are also playing their best football of the season, having won three straight while scoring 36 points or more in each of their last two games.
I know the Steelers are playing at home where they’ve gone a robust 18-7 SU over their last 25 games, but Pittsburgh is an uninspiring 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning record. I know Carolina is 2-4 ATS in their last six road games and 0-5 ATS in their last five games against Pittsburgh, but the Panthers are also 5-0 ATS in their last five games in the month of November, 5-1 ATS in their last six games against a team with a winning record and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record. Basically, the spread for this game should not be more than a field goal at most. I like Carolina to cover while pushing the Steelers for the outright win.
Predicted Score: Steelers 24 Panthers 23
Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
🏈: Washington Redskins (5-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5)
⏰: Sunday, November 11, 2018, 1:00 PM ET
🏟️: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
📺: FOX, DTV: 713
🎰: Tampa Bay Buccaneers: -3 -105 | -145 | U 51½ -110
I perfectly called Washington’s 38-14 home blowout loss against Atlanta on Sunday and now I’m coming back with a pick for the Skins to win and cash in against a reeling Tampa Bay team that has lost two straight including their 42-38 smackdown loss against Carolina on Sunday.
Tampa Bay has the far more explosive offense in this contest by averaging 8.6 points per game more than Washington, the Buccaneers also have an awful defense that gives up a whopping 34.3 points per game defensively to rank dead last in points allowed while Washington has limited the opposition to just 21.5 points per game to rank ninth in points allowed.
While veteran quarterback Alex Smith – and even more so, future Hall of Fame running back Adrian Peterson – have helped solidify Washington’s offense this season, Tampa Bay’s Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick have combined this season to play some mostly awful football. Fitzpatrick has thrown 17 TD passes and seven interceptions while Winston has tossed six TD passes and 10 costly interceptions.
The Redskins are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an SU or ATS loss, an identical 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on grass. On the flip side of the coin, Tampa Bay has gone an uninspiring 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games against their NFC counterparts, 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS loss, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss. I’m expecting Washington’s defense to force Fitzpatrick – or Winston – into at least two costly turnovers in order to get the win and ATS cover as a surprising road underdog.
Predicted Score: Redskins 31 Buccaneers 28
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
🏈: Seattle Seahawks (4-4) at Los Angeles Rams (8-1)
⏰: Sunday, November 4, 2018, 4:25 PM ET
🏟️: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA
📺: CBS, DTV: 715
🎰: Los Angeles Rams: -10 -105 | -500 | U 51½ -110
Seattle let me down in a big way by falling to the Chargers 25-17 on Sunday to snap a modest two-game winning streak while the Rams suffered their first loss of the season by losing to New Orleans 45-35. Now, I’m thinking the Rams are a near lock to get back in the win column in Week 10, but they’re not beating their NFC West rivals by the 11 points it would take for them to cover the spread.
While Los Angeles averages about 10 points per game more than Seattle, the Seahawks have the statistically better defense in limiting the opposition to 19.5 points per game to the Rams’ 22.2 points per contest allowed. Two of the last three and three of the last six meetings between these division rivals have been decided by six points or less and I’m expecting this one too as well.
I know Seattle has gone 1-5 ATS in their last six road dates against the Rams, but Russell Wilson and company are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss, 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 10 and a robust 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 games following a straight up loss. With Jared Goff and the Rams going just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against their NFC counterparts and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall, I say back Seattle to cover while Los Angeles wins outright.
Predicted Score: Rams 31 Seahawks 24